Editor’s Note: Lanhee J. Chen, PhD, is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion and the David and Diane Steffy Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution. He was a candidate for California State Controller in 2022. Chen has played senior roles in both Republican and Democratic presidential administrations and been an adviser to four presidential campaigns, including as policy director of Romney-Ryan 2012. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

CNN
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President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met this week for the first time since McCarthy’s election as speaker amid much fanfare, but low expectations.

With a looming debt crisis facing the country, the public messaging on both sides was clear: There’s not a whole lot we agree on now, so let’s keep the conversation going. Biden budget chief Shalanda Young described the negotiations as a “marathon” where the two sides would eventually “find a path.”

Of course, we’ve seen this movie before: In 2011, when the country faced default and the global economy was on edge, then-President Barack Obama and Republicans in Congress reached an agreement in the last few hours before catastrophe was set to strike. Over a decade later, with a more polarized country and even less bipartisanship to speak of, observers shouldn’t expect the current crisis to be resolved until the weather becomes unbearably warm in Washington.

One of the dealmakers who facilitated the 2011 deal was none other than Joe Biden. Now, many in Washington are trying to predict what might unfold over the next several months as the once-and-future dealmaker approaches yet another debt ceiling crisis – but this time as commander in chief.

The current crisis presents an opportunity for moderates in both parties to unite around the need both to raise the debt ceiling but also to put in place lasting changes that will fundamentally improve America’s fiscal trajectory.

While we wait for an outcome, here are a few themes and trends to watch out for.

A final agreement between the White House and congressional Republicans is likely to hinge on whether a process can be put in place to address federal spending. It’s unlikely negotiators will reach a debt deal that includes specific spending reductions or even general targets, so watch for them to instead establish a process through which those details can be hammered out.

It will be far easier for negotiators to agree on broad terms (such as the idea that deficits and the debt deserve some attention) rather than specific changes to programs or even overarching areas of spending cuts like on defense or domestic discretionary programs.

The 2011 debt ceiling crisis was ultimately averted through the creation of a congressional “supercommittee” (officially called the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction) that was tasked with developing a specific plan to reduce deficits.

Unfortunately, that committee could not reach bipartisan agreement on a final proposal, resulting in the imposition of spending caps that reduced both defense and non-defense discretionary spending on a broad range of items in education, health and human services and even public safety.

What sort of process might be put in place as part of a debt ceiling deal in 2023? Consider existing bipartisan legislation sponsored by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, who have long preached the need for consensus on and attention to fiscal issues. Their bill, called the TRUST Act, would create bipartisan and bicameral “rescue committees” that would shore up and reform entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security before their trust funds run out of reserves.

The committees themselves wouldn’t have the ability to make policy changes directly but could make recommendations (requiring bipartisan support within the committee to be considered by either the full House or Senate) that would receive expedited legislative consideration. This is precisely the sort of process-oriented fiscal reform that could make its way into a final agreement between the two sides.

Inclusion of the TRUST Act in a final deal would satisfy GOP concerns about addressing spending, preserve promises made by both sides not to “cut” either Medicare or Social Security as part of the process but also give the Biden White House something it can exchange for GOP votes to avert default.

While right and left have become more polarized, moderates in both chambers will likely have something to say about where the debt ceiling negotiations go. The Problem Solvers Caucus in the House, chaired by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat, have emerged as important voices on substantive, but thorny issues, and were important to passage of Biden’s infrastructure package in 2021.

Similarly, moderate voices in the Senate like Manchin, Romney, Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, and Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, have emerged as important counterweights to those seeking to pull lawmaking toward the poles.

In the debt ceiling debate, these moderates could play a role not only in brokering a deal, but also ensuring that there are sufficient votes for ultimately raising the debt ceiling. This is particularly the case if McCarthy ends up agreeing to provisions that some conservative Republicans may oppose. McCarthy may have no choice but to rely on a few Democrats, in addition to a majority of Republicans, to get a deal across the finish line.

There will be a lot of back-and-forth, prognostication and apocalyptic talk over the next several months about whether and how the debt ceiling will be raised. Ignore almost all of it. While both sides will invariably conduct some of their negotiations via the media, the real work of cutting a deal will happen behind closed doors and with almost no public visibility.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that the “extraordinary measures” being used to stave off default will take us until sometime in early June. Past experience suggests there may be a little wiggle room beyond that. But don’t expect the talks to really heat up for several more months and, even then, the real incentive to complete the negotiations won’t come until the global economy is literally backed into a corner.

That means several more months of wondering, waiting and worrying about whether our broken political system can solve yet another fiscal crisis – one more time.