Big picture: Can England spoil Australia’s semi-final push?

Suffice to say, this is not the occasion it was earmarked to be. England versus Australia at the back-end of the group stages, at the most grandiloquent venue that this World Cup can offer. This was intended, at the very least, to be a shoot-out for the semi-finals, and maybe even a dress rehearsal for a yet more significant showdown at this same venue further down the line.

And long, long ago, when Australia were the team sitting rock-bottom of the World Cup standings after back-to-back losses to South Africa and India, England might even have assumed that this would be their opportunity to land the final smackdown on their oldest foes.

How the worm has turned since then. Australia have gone on to win four from four, while it’s England who have spent the past fortnight circling the drain. Somehow, they go into this contest with a 0.4% chance of reaching the knock-outs – but the fact that they aren’t dead yet despite five losses in six only goes to show how loaded towards the established teams this format really is.

As for Australia, it won’t be entirely plain-sailing into the semis if they drop the ball now. A pumped-up Afghanistan lie in wait in their next round (and they look set to be level on points by the end of their ongoing clash with the Netherlands) while a late-charging Pakistan offer another unexpected top-four challenge, albeit their own clash with fourth-placed New Zealand will mean two points dropped by one rival or the other.

Very different degrees of jeopardy are at play therefore, but as tends to be the case in Anglo-Australian World Cup clashes, the immediate tournament context is sure to be rolled into the wider, wilder, narrative of an ancient and implacable rivalry.

In David Warner and the fit-again Travis Head, Australia still boast a pair of openers with three times as many centuries as England’s entire line-up has contributed across six matches – and the confidence that they will be able to project in the powerplay could yet be crucial.

England, however, will enter this match with judgement swirling around their misfiring troops – and David Willey’s impending international retirement is a reminder, too, that stages such as these don’t present themselves forever in the cut-throat world of professional sport. There’s no time like the present, therefore, for the still-just-about-reigning World Champions to serve a reminder of their ability. Especially if, in the process, they can make their arch-opponents’ progress that little bit less serene.

Form guide: Australia on a hot streak, England less so

Australia WWWWL (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
England LLLLW

In the spotlight: Joe Root and Adam Zampa

Team news: Maxwell, Marsh out for Australia

There might be temptation for England to look to the future, and give opportunities to some of the players more likely to feature in the post-World Cup rebuild – most notably their Under-30 pairing of Harry Brook and Gus Atkinson, who has been passed fit despite wearing a cast on his little finger following a blow during training on Thursday. But that would require some statement omissions from the existing XI, and the sense in the build-up is that the players who got England into this mess will be given a chance, for now, to atone for their shortcomings. Brydon Carse, Reece Topley’s replacement, is waiting in the wings, but Mark Wood – three-year contract and all – is just as likely to be unleashed once more with Ashes-style orders to “bowl rockets”.

England (probable): 1 Jonny Bairstow, 2 Dawid Malan, 3 Joe Root, 4 Ben Stokes, 5 Jos Buttler (capt, wk), 6 Moeen Ali / Harry Brook, 7 Liam Livingstone, 8 Chris Woakes, 9 David Willey, 10 Mark Wood, 11 Adil Rashid

Australia (probable): 1 David Warner, 2 Travis Head, 3 Steven Smith, 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Josh Inglis (wk), 6 Marcus Stoinis, 7 Cameron Green, 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood

Pitch and conditions: The red or the black?

Stats and trivia: Buttler closing in on 5000

Quotes

“That was a couple of months ago. It’s done: it’s a new game, new tournament. But I always think a healthy amount of rivalry is good – especially our playing group. We’re quite a chilled, calm group, so when we get a little bit more fired up, I actually don’t think it’s too bad a thing.”
Pat Cummins says Australia have moved on from the Ashes.

“It’s just been a disaster, and there’s no point sugarcoating it because it’s probably what you’re all going to write anyway – and it’s true.”
Ben Stokes tells the media that their assessment of England’s World Cup campaign is spot on.